Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 19 August 2026 will determine the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station that day, measured in degrees Celsius. The market settles based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences in recorded highs. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, creating a narrow window for final observations.

August represents Seoul's peak summer heat period, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C at Incheon. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the uppermost range bracket on offer, though this assessment lacks corroboration from comparable sportsbook or analyst consensus data currently available. Cross-platform divergence remains opaque; traditional weather forecasting services do not publish odds on specific temperature thresholds, limiting direct comparison between prediction-market pricing and alternative probability estimates.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or anomalous atmospheric conditions. El Niño or La Niña phases active during mid-2026 could materially shift expected temperature distributions. The specificity of the Daily Observations resolution criterion—rather than headline figures—means traders require familiarity with Incheon station's historical recording patterns and any potential equipment changes that might affect measured values.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.