Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by which temperature band contains the recorded high. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across the crowd, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

August temperatures in Seoul historically cluster between 28–32°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C during heat waves. The 2018 heat wave saw Seoul record 39.6°C in early August, whilst more typical summer highs range 29–31°C. Cross-platform comparison reveals no active sportsbook lines on this contract; prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi show identical zero probability, indicating either a technical listing issue or consensus that one particular temperature band dominates trader conviction. This uniformity across platforms is unusual for weather derivatives and warrants scrutiny of whether the market has properly calibrated to seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecast issued in early August 2026, which typically provides reliable guidance for Seoul-area highs. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August could materially shift temperature expectations downward, whilst persistent high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula would elevate probabilities for above-30°C outcomes. The resolution source's specificity—Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—creates potential for discrepancies, making familiarity with Wunderground's Incheon station reporting methodology essential for settlement accuracy.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.