Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The live temperature at Incheon International Airport is the only number that matters for this contract, and the current 0% YES crowd price implies traders see virtually no chance of an outcome that lands in the market’s YES bucket. That is a strikingly low implied probability for an August weather event in a maritime East Asian city, where climatology normally supports warm afternoons rather than cold extremes; long-run August averages for Seoul sit around 30°C highs, while Incheon’s monthly guides cluster in a similar hot-and-humid range. [7][12][13][19]

For historical framing, Seoul has produced genuinely severe summer heat, including 39.6°C on 1 August 2018 and 38.8°C in another early-August heatwave, which shows that very high readings are possible in the wider metro area when continental heat dominates. [1][9] At the same time, the market is not asking whether Seoul is hot in August, but whether the *highest* temperature at Incheon Airport on this specific day falls into the contract’s settlement band, so traders should compare the contract against the airport station rather than city-centre anecdotes. [1][3][9]

The main catalyst is the short-range forecast around Incheon, especially whether the Korea Meteorological Administration maintains or upgrades heatwave guidance and whether cloud, rain, or sea-breeze effects cap the daytime maximum below the relevant range. A recent report already showed Incheon’s overnight minimum at 26.8°C and Seoul’s at 27.4°C amid a nationwide heatwave, which supports the idea that the terminal airport can stay very warm even before the afternoon peak arrives. [3][8][15] In cross-market terms, sportsbook-style weather pricing tends to react quickly to forecast revisions, while prediction markets may stay anchored to historical seasonality until a concrete KMA update or same-day temperature trend forces repricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.