Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

São Paulo’s airport temperature on 7 August is trading against a fairly warm-but-not-extreme winter setup, with the current crowd price at 0% YES implying the market is treating a qualifying reading as unlikely. That looks low versus the published daily guidance: G1’s forecast for the city called for a high of 27°C with showers later in the day, while the Rio Times brief expected a clearer, slightly cooler 25°C afternoon; both sit well inside the contract’s likely settlement bands rather than pushing towards an exceptional outcome.[10][1]

Historical comparables do not point to a dramatic upside move. August in São Paulo is typically a mild month, with long-run summaries around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and many days below 30°C, while airport observations from nearby stations on the day showed values in the low 20s Celsius late in the evening, consistent with an ordinary winter profile rather than a heat spike.[13][3][5] That makes the 0% crowd signal understandable, but it also means the contract is more sensitive to the exact daily observations table than to headline summaries: if the airport records a brief afternoon peak above the forecast range, the settlement can move quickly even when the broader city forecast looks tame.[11][2]

The main catalysts are the daytime evolution of cloud, rain and wind ahead of the evening cooldown, plus the final observations from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos station before the settlement window closes.[2][10] Analytically, sportsbook-style forecast services are clustered around the mid-20s Celsius, with AccuWeather and other forecasters pointing to highs broadly in the 24–27°C range, which is directionally consistent with the market’s scepticism but not identical to a hard zero.[4][6][7] The key dependency is therefore the exact hourly observation path at the airport rather than citywide commentary, especially if late-afternoon sunshine lifts the peak above the consensus band.[3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.