Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 is being priced almost exclusively in the 78–79°F band, with the market assigning a 93% probability to that range while the 80–81°F outcome sits at just 6% [1]. The 0% implied probability for any “YES” outcome on a higher-temperature contract reflects a near-universal consensus that temperatures will not breach 80°F, a stance that diverges sharply from some sportsbook lines which occasionally offer marginal value on 80+°F during late-summer heatwaves.

Historically, mid-July highs at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) cluster tightly between 75°F and 79°F, with only rare excursions above 80°F during strong marine-layer breakdowns or inland heat advection events. The current 93% weighting for 78–79°F aligns with the 10-year median for KSFO on 14 July, suggesting traders are anchoring to typical Pacific Ocean moderation rather than betting on an anomalous ridge.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 5–7 day forecast for the Central Valley, as a persistent high-pressure ridge could erode the marine layer and push KSFO toward 80°F. A recent forecast update from the NWS highlights a potential heat dome developing over Northern California by mid-July, which could act as the key catalyst for a shift in odds [1]. Any announcement of a marine-layer failure or a sudden wind shift from the southeast would be the primary signal to watch for a re-rating of the 80–81°F contract.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.