Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily high for KSFO. The market currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range, though the exact range is not stated in the prompt.

Historically, July highs in San Francisco average around 70°F, rarely dipping below 64°F or exceeding 79°F[1]. On 12 July 2021, the city tied a record low maximum of 57°F, matching lows from 1899, 1901, and 1912[9]. Conversely, the all-time record for San Francisco is 106°F, set on 1 September 2017, with a prior record of 103°F on 13 June 2000[2]. These extremes frame the 0% implied probability: unless the range is set near the historical average, the crowd likely sees the threshold as unattainable for this date.

Traders should monitor real-time KSFO data from Wunderground as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026[8]. No scheduled weather announcements or climate events are expected to alter the outcome, as the resolution depends solely on observed temperature. For cross-platform comparison, Kalshi and Robinhood list identical contracts tied to the same KSFO source, but odds may diverge if one platform adjusts for local microclimate variance or historical bias[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.