Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The station, located north-east of central Paris, serves as the official reference point for the city's temperature records and feeds into Wunderground's historical database.

July temperatures in the Paris region typically peak between 24–28°C, though heat waves can drive readings above 30°C. The 2003 European heat wave saw Paris reach 40.3°C on 4 August, whilst more recent summers have produced peaks in the low-to-mid 30s. The current 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either pricing in below-average conditions or treating the market as illiquid relative to comparable weather contracts on other platforms. Cross-platform comparison data from Kalshi's temperature markets and Polymarket's historical weather settlement patterns would clarify whether this represents genuine consensus or simply thin order books.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-July 2026 onwards, particularly high-pressure systems tracking across the continent. The Copernicus Climate Change Service and Météo-France issue extended outlooks 10–14 days in advance that typically inform professional weather traders. Any significant Atlantic blocking pattern or heat dome positioning over continental Europe in late July would shift expectations materially. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull for that specific station; any technical delays in data publication could affect resolution timing, though the 12:00 UTC window provides a defined cut-off.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.