Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is facing a warm July day, with the local forecast pointing to highs in the upper 20s Celsius and clear skies across Île-de-France. That puts the settlement question squarely in a range where 25°C to 26°C looks plausible, while the market’s current 0% yes price implies traders see the contract’s exact threshold structure as effectively unmet or mispriced rather than merely unlikely.[2][1]

The market itself is already centred on that band: Polymarket shows 26°C as the front-runner at 45%, with 25°C close behind at 42%.[1] That is a meaningful gap versus the crowd-implied 0% YES figure cited for the contract as a whole, suggesting either a venue-specific pricing mismatch or a different interpretation of the settlement range than the headline temperature distribution. For context, France has been in a broader summer heat pattern, with recent reporting from *Le Monde* noting Météo-France had not ruled out a persistent heatwave, although that was earlier in the month and forecast confidence remained limited.[3]

Traders should watch the Paris-Le Bourget Airport observation itself, because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded there on 22 July, not a citywide average or the daytime forecast peak. The key catalysts are the intraday temperature path, any late-afternoon convective cooling, and whether the day’s maximum is logged before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 22 July. If the airport station peaks a degree above the forecast range, the pricing can move quickly because the contract outcome is a single observed value rather than a broad weather impression.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.