Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its peak temperature for 20 July 2026, the single data point determining settlement for this weather contract. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, though the exact range is not defined in the prompt. This zero-implied probability is stark when weighed against historical July heat in Paris, where temperatures frequently exceed 30°C, with record highs reaching 42.6°C in 2019 and 41.8°C in 2022 at nearby stations.

Historical July data from Paris-Le Bourget shows consistent warmth, with average maximums hovering near 25°C and frequent spikes above 35°C during heatwaves. The current 0% implied probability suggests a significant divergence from typical seasonal patterns or a misalignment in the range definition, as even moderate July days in Paris rarely dip below 20°C. Traders comparing this to Kalshi’s weather lines or sportsbook derivatives on European heat should note that such a flat probability often signals either a structural error in the contract range or an extreme consensus on a cold anomaly, which is statistically rare for mid-summer in northern France.

Key catalysts include the official release of the 20 July temperature on Wunderground’s Paris-Le Bourget history page, which serves as the sole resolution source. Traders must monitor Meteo France’s seasonal forecasts for late July 2026, as any announcement of a blocking high-pressure system over Western Europe could drastically shift odds if the range is actually a high-temperature bracket. Recent climate reports from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a persistent trend of intensifying summer heatwaves across the continent, making a 0% probability on a high-temperature range increasingly suspect as the settlement window approaches in 2026.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.