Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, with the market overwhelmingly betting on a reading of 26°C. Current Polymarket data shows a 92% implied probability for this specific threshold, while the 27°C outcome trails at just 7% [1]. The crowd-implied probability for a “YES” result on any higher threshold sits at 0%, reflecting a near-universal consensus that extreme heat beyond this range is unlikely for this date.

Historically, mid-July temperatures in Paris typically cluster between 24°C and 28°C, with 26°C representing a median high rather than an outlier. Comparable cases from the last decade show that days exceeding 30°C in mid-July are rare, usually tied to specific continental heat domes that have not been forecast for 2026. This historical baseline aligns with the current 0% probability for higher ranges, suggesting traders are pricing in a standard summer day rather than a record-breaking event.

Traders should monitor the Meteo-France daily bulletin and Wunderground’s real-time station feed for Paris-Le Bourget, as these are the definitive sources for settlement. Any sudden shift in the European heat map, such as an unexpected southerly wind surge, could alter the trajectory, though no such catalysts are currently flagged in recent forecasts. With settlement closing at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, the window for price movement is narrow, and the 92% confidence in 26°C leaves little room for divergence unless a major weather anomaly emerges [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.