Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is currently experiencing passing clouds with a temperature of 34°C (93°F) as the day concludes on 12 July 2026, yet the prediction market for the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport assigns a 0% probability to any outcome resolving as "YES" for a specific unlisted threshold, while simultaneously showing 48% implied probability for the 35°C range and 47% for 36°C [1][3]. This apparent divergence between the live weather reading and the crowd-implied probability suggests the market is pricing a specific temperature cap rather than the event of heat occurring itself, with traders heavily favouring the 35–36°C band over lower or higher extremes.

Historical data frames this current pricing as plausible, given that Paris’s all-time record high is 42.6°C, set on 25 July 2019, while France’s national record reached 45.9°C in southern Gallargues-le-Montueux during a recent extreme heatwave [2][4]. The 2003 and 2019 heatwaves previously pushed average temperatures to 29.4°C, making a peak near 35–36°C on a mid-July day consistent with established climate patterns rather than an outlier event [5].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily history for Paris-Le Bourget, which serves as the definitive resolution source, and watch for any late-evening Met Office updates on overnight cooling that might influence final settlement figures [1][5]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the market’s real-time odds will continue to shift as the collective view adjusts to the final recorded maximum, reflecting the latest trader activity on the platform [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.