Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 19 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with settlement occurring at midday on that date. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will prevail. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than its summary high-low figures—serves as the authoritative source, a distinction that matters when intraday readings diverge from final recorded highs.

August temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 18°C and 28°C, though heat waves have pushed readings above 30°C in recent years. The 2022 European heat event saw Paris exceed 35°C in mid-August, whilst the cooler summer of 2021 produced highs around 24°C. Historical volatility across this window is substantial; a single weather system can shift the daily maximum by 8–10°C. The zero probability across all ranges suggests traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or may view the market as too distant for meaningful prediction.

Meteorological outlooks for August 2026 remain preliminary, though European weather services typically issue 30-day forecasts by late July. Atlantic pressure patterns and potential heat dome formation will be critical catalysts shaping trader positioning in the weeks before settlement. Any significant revision to seasonal temperature expectations—particularly from Météo-France or the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—could trigger material shifts in implied probabilities across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.