Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Paris-Le Bourget Airport weather station will record its highest temperature on 15 August 2026, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band captures that daily maximum. The 1% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect a relatively cool day for mid-August in the French capital, implying scepticism about extreme heat conditions materialising on that specific date.

August temperatures at Le Bourget historically peak in the 25–28°C range during typical years, though heat waves have driven readings above 35°C on occasion. The summer of 2023 saw Paris experience several days exceeding 30°C in August, whilst 2022's extreme European heat pushed some readings toward 40°C. The current 1% probability reflects a baseline expectation closer to seasonal norms rather than exceptional conditions. Comparable markets pricing August heat events across European capitals typically show higher probabilities for threshold breaches when atmospheric patterns favour continental warming; the low odds here suggest the market is pricing for either average conditions or a relatively cool anomaly.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as August 2026 approaches. Ocean temperature anomalies in the Atlantic and Mediterranean, along with jet stream positioning in early August, will signal whether conditions favour heat accumulation across northern France. The resolution methodology specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, making instrument calibration and station-specific readings the determining factor rather than broader regional estimates.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.