Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 July 2026, a date that falls within an unprecedented East Coast heatwave. Recent days have shattered century-old records, with LaGuardia hitting 104°F on 3 July and sustaining 94°F at midnight, the warmest ever for the city. This extreme thermal persistence suggests that a 0% implied probability for any temperature outcome is mathematically inconsistent with observed reality, as the atmosphere has already delivered record-breaking highs that defy historical norms.

Historical precedents frame this anomaly: the 1966 record of 101°F was broken by 3°F in just three days, while 29 fatalities in New Jersey underscore the lethal intensity of this wave. Comparable cases show that once such thresholds are breached, temperatures rarely retreat immediately; instead, they linger, as seen when midnight readings surpassed 93°F for the first time since 2013. The current market probability ignores this continuity, creating a stark divergence between prediction-market odds and the physical evidence of sustained heat that has already exceeded all prior benchmarks.

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates and Wunderground’s daily logs, which will confirm the final resolution. Recent reports from FOX Weather highlight that heat lingered into the night, breaking daily high-temperature records and setting new midnight milestones. Analyst consensus on similar contracts suggests that ignoring such sustained anomalies leads to significant pricing errors, as the heatwave’s momentum has not yet dissipated. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 9 July, and any delay in data release could obscure the true peak, making real-time verification critical for accurate cross-platform odds comparison.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.