Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 8 July 2026, with the market currently implying a zero per cent chance of any outcome above the lowest range. This 0% YES probability sits in stark contrast to the unprecedented heatwave that dominated the East Coast just days earlier, where LaGuardia shattered its 1966 record by hitting 104°F on 3 July 2026, a spike that killed 29 people in neighbouring New Jersey and broke records standing for over a century[1]. Historical precedents show LaGuardia has reached 101°F on multiple occasions, including 3 July 2026 and 24 June 2025, suggesting that while extreme heat is rare, the current market pricing may be ignoring the volatility introduced by this specific climatic anomaly[10].

Traders must monitor the immediate weather trajectory for 8 July, particularly the persistence of the heatwave’s lingering effects and any incoming scattered showers that could suppress temperatures. Recent forecasts indicate daily highs ranging from 73°F to 91°F for LaGuardia in July 2026, yet the record-breaking midnight temperature of 94°F recorded on 4 July demonstrates how quickly conditions can deviate from seasonal norms[2][5]. The critical catalyst is the potential for a rapid cooldown following the holiday weekend surge, as American Weather notes scattered heavier downpours moving north, which could drastically alter the settlement outcome if they arrive before noon[8]. Analyst consensus on similar contracts often diverges from prediction-market lines when such extreme, short-term volatility is present, creating a meaningful gap between sportsbook odds and the current 0% implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.