Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is bracing for a potential heat spike on 7 July 2026, with the LaGuardia Airport Station expected to record its daily high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. The prediction market currently assigns a mere 4% probability to the YES outcome, implying traders believe extreme heat is unlikely despite a recent early-July heatwave that pushed LaGuardia to 104°F on 2 July [4].

Historical context suggests the current odds may understate volatility. During the same early-July heatwave, LaGuardia shattered its daily high record by reaching 104°F, surpassing the 101°F peak from 1966 [4]. Furthermore, the airport recorded its warmest midnight temperature ever at 94°F on 4 July, demonstrating how heat can linger intensely even after frontal passages [2][5]. While recent cooling has positioned mid-70s as the probable outcome for 6 July, the divergence between the 100% market confidence in 70–71°F for that day and the 4% implied probability for a high-temperature event on 7 July highlights a notable pricing gap compared to sportsbook lines on similar weather contracts [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly forecasts for any shift in frontal passage timing, as delays could allow the residual heat from the early-July wave to persist. AccuWeather’s monthly forecast for July 2026 indicates daily highs could range from 81°F to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F, suggesting the potential for temperatures well above the current market expectation [6]. Any announcement regarding a stalled front or increased humidity levels before the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 7 July could act as a catalyst for a rapid repricing of the contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.