Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is experiencing record-breaking heat, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 94°F at midnight and a daytime peak of 104°F, shattering previous highs and surpassing Phoenix. This extreme weather sets the stage for a prediction market on the highest temperature recorded on 4 July 2026, where the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of any outcome, despite the market frontrunner being 98–99°F at 41% probability on Polymarket. The divergence between the zero implied probability and the strong 41% market assignment suggests a significant mispricing or confusion in the current odds, contrasting sharply with analyst consensus that such heat is plausible given the recent trend.

Historical data shows LaGuardia has repeatedly broken records, including the 93°F midnight mark from 2013 and the 101°F daytime peak, now eclipsed by 104°F. This pattern indicates that extreme July temperatures are not anomalies but part of an escalating trend, framing the current 0% probability as overly conservative. Traders should monitor official weather announcements from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Fox Weather, which recently highlighted the record-breaking conditions. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 4 July 2026, so any sudden shifts in temperature forecasts or weather model adjustments could drastically alter the odds, making this a high-dependency contract for cross-platform odds comparison.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.