Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in Queens recorded a peak temperature of 104°F, surpassing its daily high of 101°F set in 1966 and marking one of the most extreme heat events in recent New York City history[3]. This figure aligns with the historical record for the date, which stands at 107°F at LaGuardia, also from 1966, indicating that the 2026 reading was exceptionally close to the all-time maximum[9]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature falling in the lowest range is 0%, the market correctly reflects that such a low outcome is virtually impossible when recent data shows temperatures consistently exceeding 99°F by late afternoon[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts for the New York metro area, particularly any announcements regarding sustained heatwaves or atmospheric ridging that could push temperatures beyond the 100°F threshold again in the coming weeks[5]. While the 2026 event has already occurred, the settlement window ending in 2026 suggests this market may be a retrospective contract or a misdated listing, requiring verification of the actual resolution date against the Wunderground archive[7]. Analyst consensus on similar contracts typically diverges from sportsbook lines when historical records are involved, as prediction markets often price in the certainty of recorded extremes more aggressively than traditional betting venues, which may still hedge on unrecorded variability[8]. The divergence is meaningful here: where some platforms might offer odds on lower ranges due to uncertainty, the 0% implied probability on this contract underscores the definitive nature of the 104°F reading[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.