Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The National Weather Service will record the peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 27 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical data archived on Weather Underground. July typically ranks among New York City's warmest months, with average highs near 27–29°C (81–84°F), though extreme heat events can push readings well into the mid-30s Celsius (90s Fahrenheit). The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine uncertainty event, given that the settlement date lies nearly two years forward.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison, as specific daily temperature forecasts at this distance remain highly speculative. However, NYC's July record high stands at 40.6°C (105°F), set in 1933, whilst more recent extreme events—such as the July 2019 heat wave that reached 34°C (93°F)—demonstrate the range of plausible outcomes. Seasonal climate patterns and long-term warming trends suggest mid-range outcomes (28–32°C or 82–90°F) carry higher baseline probability than either unusually cool or record-breaking scenarios.

Traders monitoring this contract should track National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seasonal forecasts released in spring 2026, which typically refine expectations for summer temperature distributions across the northeastern United States. Any significant atmospheric pattern shifts—such as persistent high-pressure systems or tropical cyclone activity affecting the Atlantic seaboard—would alter the probability distribution materially. The current flat market pricing reflects genuine epistemic distance rather than consensus conviction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.