Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 24 July 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Current crowd-implied probability sits at zero per cent across major platforms, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity in this particular contract.

July temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–90°F, with historical records showing 104°F as the all-time high for the month. The 30-year average high for late July hovers near 84°F. Traders assessing this market should reference the National Weather Service's long-range forecast issued in early July 2026, which will provide the most reliable guidance on whether Atlantic ridge positioning or tropical systems might drive anomalous heat. The zero per cent probability reading suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or participant interest to establish meaningful odds across temperature bands.

Kalshi's weather derivatives typically attract more consistent volume than comparable Polymarket contracts, though neither platform shows substantial open interest in niche daily temperature settlements outside major metropolitan areas during peak summer. Any meaningful divergence between sportsbooks and prediction markets on this contract would reflect data availability rather than analytical disagreement—weather outcomes are deterministic and verifiable within hours of settlement. Traders should monitor National Weather Service advisories in mid-July 2026 for any heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns that might shift the distribution of likely outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.