Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s highest temperature for 22 July is the key figure here, and the current crowd-implied **0% YES** pricing points to a market that is treating an upper-bin outcome as effectively off the table. Polymarket’s own market note says late-day conditions were expected to be moderated by southwest flow, partial cloud cover and a possible seabreeze influence, with NYC maximum temperatures most likely in the **83–87°F** range and extremes above **90°F** viewed as unlikely.[1] That profile leaves the contract’s outcome dependent on the exact peak reading at KLGA rather than citywide conditions, which can diverge meaningfully from Central Park-style headlines.

Historically, July in New York is warm enough that low- to mid-80s readings are common, but the spread between nearby stations can still matter when a contract settles on one airport observation. The market’s near-zero pricing therefore looks less like a broad “will it be hot?” view and more like a sceptical read on whether the specific settlement source prints into the relevant bin at the right time.[1][2] In comparable summer setups, traders usually watch for whether cloud cover or onshore flow suppresses the day’s high by a few degrees, since a 2–3°F miss can shift the result across adjacent ranges.[1]

For catalysts, the main dependency is the final Wunderground daily history entry for LaGuardia, because the market only resolves once the next day’s first data point is published there.[1] The practical trading watchlist is limited: late-afternoon convective development, a stronger-than-expected seabreeze, or any forecast revision from local weather coverage that narrows the expected high. NBC New York’s morning forecast on 22 July pointed to an **84°F** high and little chance of significant rain, which is consistent with the broader moderate-heat setup and helps explain why consensus weather expectations do not obviously support an extreme outcome.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.