Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station in New York City will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a prediction market currently implying a 0% chance of a specific high-temperature range. This date falls in mid-summer, when New York typically experiences hot conditions, with historical July highs at LaGuardia ranging from 81°F to 99°F, and extreme records reaching 107°F on 3 July 1966[3][7]. The market’s current 0% implied probability suggests traders are confident the temperature will not fall within the offered range, possibly due to expectations of cooler-than-average conditions or a mismatch between the range and likely outcomes.

Historically, July 2 has seen notable heat spikes, including LaGuardia’s 101°F record in 1966 and Newark Airport’s 103°F in 1901, indicating that extreme temperatures are plausible but not guaranteed[4]. Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts, particularly those from AccuWeather and Wunderground, which project daily highs between 81°F and 99°F for July 2026 at LaGuardia[3][6]. A key catalyst is the potential formation of a high-pressure dome, which recent reports suggest could push temperatures in nearby New Jersey to 104–105°F, potentially influencing NYC conditions as well[8]. No official announcements are scheduled, but real-time updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground will be critical as the settlement window closes on 2 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC[1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.