Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome outside the available resolution brackets, or the market has attracted minimal liquidity. LaGuardia's historical July temperatures typically peak between 82°F and 92°F, with extreme heat days (95°F+) occurring roughly once per decade during summer months. The National Weather Service's 30-year climate normals for New York City show a July average high of 79°F, though individual days frequently exceed this by 10–15 degrees.

The settlement window closes at midday on 19 July 2026, creating a practical constraint: only temperatures recorded through noon will count towards resolution. This differs from markets using full 24-hour daily highs and may explain the sparse trading activity. Traders should monitor National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seasonal forecasts released in May and June 2026, which typically provide confidence intervals for summer temperature patterns across the Northeast. Recent climate data from the past three summers (2023–2025) will offer the most relevant comparable baseline for assessing whether 2026 tracking aligns with longer-term warming trends or regional anomalies.

The divergence between prediction-market pricing and meteorological expectations suggests either insufficient market depth or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Cross-platform comparison with Kalshi's equivalent contract, if available, would clarify whether this represents genuine disagreement or simply illiquidity in a niche weather market.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.