Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 17 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for KLGA. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the “YES” outcome, suggesting traders view the specific temperature range in question as virtually impossible given mid-July climatology in New York City.

Historical data from the National Weather Service shows LaGuardia’s July highs typically range between 75°F and 95°F, with extremes rarely exceeding 100°F even during heatwaves [2]. Comparable cases from recent decades, including the 2011 and 2023 heat events, confirm that temperatures above 105°F are exceptionally rare, framing the 0% probability as a rational assessment rather than an outlier bet.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s mid-week heat advisories and the position of the Bermuda High, which often drives sustained high temperatures into the Northeast. A recent forecast update from Weather.gov highlights that while humidity will rise this weekend, no extreme heat event is currently modelled for 17 July, reinforcing the market’s low implied odds [2]. No sportsbook lines exist for this specific weather contract, leaving the prediction market as the sole venue for odds comparison, with Kalshi offering similar temperature-range contracts but differing resolution thresholds.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.