Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

A strong summer heatwave is gripping the Northeastern United States, with New York City forecast to reach 97°F on 16 July 2026 at LaGuardia Airport. This intense period of hot, humid conditions places the highest temperature squarely in the upper 90s, driving the current crowd-implied probability of 56% for the YES outcome on Polymarket. The market’s frontrunner outcome is 92–93°F at 35%, suggesting traders expect the peak to land just below the 97°F forecast, while 87°F or below holds only 18% support [1][2].

Historical context frames this probability as elevated but not extreme; NYC has not seen 100°F weather in 12 years, though a recent July 2026 heatwave pushed temperatures to 100°F with humidity making it feel like 110°F [3]. Comparable cases from the past decade show July highs typically ranging 85–95°F, meaning a 97°F reading would be an outlier but consistent with the current high-pressure system. The divergence between the 97°F forecast and the 92–93°F market frontrunner indicates traders are pricing in a slight cooling effect or measurement variance at the LaGuardia station.

Traders should monitor the weakening of the high-pressure system after 16 July, as a cold front moving in from the west is expected to bring cooler air and potential showers by 17 July [2]. The settlement window ends at 12:00:00Z on 16 July, so any late-morning cloud cover or precipitation could suppress the peak temperature below the forecast. No new announcements are pending, but real-time Wunderground data for KLGA will be the sole resolution source, making intraday temperature spikes critical to the outcome [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.