Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an intense heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport recording a daily high of 104°F earlier this week, surpassing the previous record of 101°F and briefly exceeding temperatures in Phoenix. This extreme event frames the zero per cent crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome on the July 10 contract, as the settlement window closes in just ten hours while the day’s peak heat has arguably already passed. Traders comparing Polymarket against Kalshi should note that while sportsbooks rarely offer single-day weather lines, the divergence here lies between the live meteorological reality and the static prediction-market pricing, which has effectively locked in a failure to hit the specific unresolved range.

Historical data from LaGuardia shows the station’s all-time high is 107°F, yet July averages sit near 87°F, making a spike to the upper threshold of the market’s range statistically improbable without a sustained atmospheric ridge. The current heatwave, which pushed midnight temperatures to a record 94°F, suggests the atmosphere is saturated with heat, but the specific resolution time of 12:00Z on July 10 creates a narrow dependency on whether the peak occurred before or after the settlement cutoff. Analysts monitoring the National Weather Service almanacs would view the 0% probability as rational given the timing, as the day’s maximum temperature is typically recorded in the afternoon, well after the market settles.

Key catalysts for traders involve the final hourly temperature reports from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which will confirm if the day’s peak aligns with the market’s defined range. With the heatwave persisting through the holiday travel period, as noted by Fox Weather, the immediate focus is on the 14:00–17:00 local window when temperatures usually peak. Any deviation from the forecasted 73°F to 91°F range for July 2026 would be a significant outlier, but current trends indicate the market has correctly priced the likelihood of the specific range not being met before the settlement deadline.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.