Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, a date that historically falls within New York City’s peak summer heat. While the current prediction market shows a 0% implied probability for temperatures below 92°F, this figure diverges sharply from broader weather models and comparable market data. On Kalshi, a parallel contract for Central Park assigns only an 8% chance to temperatures under 92°F, yet it allocates 49% probability to the 94–95°F range and 35% to 92–93°F, suggesting analysts expect a hot day rather than a cool one. This cross-platform discrepancy highlights how different resolution locations and data sources can shift odds meaningfully.

Historically, July 1 in New York has seen highs frequently exceeding 90°F, with AccuWeather forecasting daily highs between 80° and 100°F for July 2026, and an average high near 87°F[4][6]. The 0% probability for sub-92°F outcomes appears inconsistent with these long-term patterns and the current heat wave affecting 32 states across the US, which has driven temperatures into the 80s and 90s in many regions[7]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological report for Central Park and Wunderground’s hourly data for LaGuardia, as these are the official resolution sources[1]. Recent forecasts from KTTC TV also note isolated thunderstorms and high temperatures in the 80s for early July, with potential for stray storms later in the week[3]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or storm timing could alter the peak temperature, making real-time weather updates critical for position management.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.