Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s **highest temperature on 7 August** was shaping up as a **near-90s summer heat** event, with forecast sources pointing to a high around 90–91°F under mostly sunny conditions, and a small afternoon thunderstorm risk that could trim the peak. Polymarket’s contract was already concentrated in the **88–93°F** bands, with **90–91°F** the largest bucket at **37%**, while the market’s own live pricing implied almost no chance of an outcome at or below 81°F.[3][1]

The historical frame matters because New York in early August often sits in the upper 80s to low 90s, but the city can still overshoot into the mid-90s during a stalled warm spell or fall short if cloud cover and convection build early. That makes this contract less about a single point forecast and more about whether the day behaves like a standard warm Manhattan summer day or a stronger heat-ridge setup; on comparable hot episodes this season, local highs have already reached **100°F** in the wider New York area, showing that extreme heat was not off the table even if it was not the base case for this date.[5][10]

For traders, the key catalysts were the late-cycle model runs, the day-of National Weather Service updates, and any change in thunderstorm timing that would affect the afternoon maximum; by settlement, the actual reading must come from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** for LaGuardia Airport, not the summary high/low box. The main cross-platform divergence was that prediction markets were leaning toward a **90–91°F** outcome, while the broader forecasting consensus sat only slightly lower and still within the same band, leaving little evidence of a major disagreement between platform pricing and analyst-style weather expectations.[3][4][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.