Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s daytime temperature on 25 August is likely to sit in the low 80s Fahrenheit, with recent readings already around 78–81F and the local forecast pointing to a high near 81–83F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.[4][7][14] That profile keeps the contract clustered around the lower temperature bands rather than the top end, which is consistent with the market’s 0% YES print if the current ask is aimed at a materially hotter outcome than the forecast suggests.

For comparison, late-August highs at LaGuardia commonly land in the 80s, so a result in the low 80s would be ordinary rather than exceptional.[5][6] The more relevant question for traders is whether any afternoon convection or cloud cover trims the peak before noon Eastern, since the market resolves off NOAA’s highest hourly “Temp” reading for the day rather than the headline daily high.[15] With the forecast showing a modest chance of showers and no clear heat surge, prediction-market pricing would usually sit below any sportsbook-style longshot line for a mid-80s or higher print, and analyst consensus from the available weather guidance appears closer to the low-80s outcome than to a sharp upside break.[7][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.