Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current 0% implied probability suggests the crowd expects no meaningful likelihood of the market settling to any particular temperature range, though this reflects early positioning rather than meteorological certainty. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning forecasts must account for morning and early-afternoon conditions only.

August temperatures at LaGuardia historically range from 75°F to 88°F, with the station's all-time August high of 102°F set in 1933. Recent decades show typical August highs between 82°F and 86°F, though heat waves pushing above 90°F occur roughly once every two to three years. The 2023 summer saw multiple days exceeding 90°F in the region, whilst 2024 remained closer to historical norms. Current market pricing at zero probability across all ranges suggests traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder contract pending fuller liquidity.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended outlook for early August 2026, typically issued in late July, which will provide the first reliable indication of whether Atlantic ridge positioning or tropical systems might drive anomalous heat. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations and Day High & Low summaries has resolved previous temperature markets differently; traders should verify LaGuardia's reporting methodology, as equipment changes or station relocations occasionally create discrepancies between historical baselines and future readings.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.