Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 10 August 2026 will determine whether the day's peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport exceeds a threshold that the current crowd assigns only a 2% probability of occurring. The market resolves using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces materially different readings when intraday spikes occur outside standard reporting windows.

August heat in New York typically peaks between 85°F and 95°F, with extreme readings above 95°F occurring in roughly 15–20% of years historically. The 2% implied probability suggests traders expect a notably elevated threshold—likely in the 98°F+ range—which would place the outcome in the upper tail of observed August distributions. For context, LaGuardia recorded 99°F on 9 August 2024 and 96°F on 10 August 2023, indicating that high-90s temperatures are plausible but not routine for this date. The current odds reflect scepticism about conditions aligning for extreme heat rather than dismissal of warm weather itself.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 10 August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat domes or sustained high-pressure systems over the Northeast. Atlantic tropical activity patterns and jet-stream positioning in early August will signal whether conditions favour above-normal temperatures. Historical August records for New York show that extreme heat typically requires either persistent continental air masses or tropical moisture interactions—both detectable in medium-range forecasts by late July.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.