Highest temperature in Munich on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily high temperature, and this market will settle to whichever Celsius range captures that figure. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather database for the airport station, with the window closing at 12:00 UTC on the day itself. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, indicating either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available temperature bands.

Munich's July climate presents a stable baseline for comparison. Historical data from the past two decades shows mid-July highs typically range between 23–27°C, with occasional spikes to 28–30°C during heat waves. The summer of 2023 saw several days exceed 30°C across Bavaria, whilst 2021 remained cooler with most July peaks below 26°C. The 0% reading across all ranges suggests the market may lack sufficient trader participation to price uncertainty, or traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital.

European weather forecasting agencies, including Deutscher Wetterdienst, publish extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead of target dates. Traders should monitor late June 2026 forecasts for any signals of anomalous heat or cooler patterns affecting southern Germany. Atlantic pressure systems and North African high-pressure ridges typically drive July temperature variance in Bavaria. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded data, making data availability and station calibration the only operational risks to resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.