Highest temperature in Munich on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, traders are betting on the peak temperature recorded at Munich Airport, with the market currently assigning a 0% probability to any outcome above the lowest range, despite real-time data showing a 77% chance for 21°C and 21% for 22°C on Polymarket[1]. This stark divergence between the implied 0% YES probability and the frontrunner odds suggests a potential mispricing or a binary event structure where the “YES” condition is narrowly defined, contrasting sharply with the collective view that 21–22°C is the most likely outcome[2].

Historical July peaks at Munich Airport rarely exceed 28°C, with average highs climbing from 22°C to 24°C over the month, and extreme cases like the 38°C recorded in Munich during Europe’s 2026 heatwave being exceptional rather than typical[3][6]. The current market pricing ignores this historical ceiling, framing the 0% probability as an outlier when comparable heat events in western Germany reached 37–40°C, indicating that the market may be underestimating the risk of a high-temperature spike[4].

Traders should monitor the German Weather Service’s (DWD) daily forecasts for the Rhine-Main region and Ruhr District, where overnight temperatures have barely dropped below 24°C during recent heatwaves, a pattern that could persist if high-pressure systems like “Yvonne” remain active[4]. A recent DWD update confirms that surface air temperatures in Germany have exceeded 40°C, with France bracing for up to 42°C, suggesting that Munich could experience similar extremes if the heatwave continues[4]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, so real-time Wunderground data for the Munich Airport Station will be the definitive resolution source[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.