Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across the crowd, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on the precise Daily Observations data rather than summary high-low figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies worth monitoring.

August temperatures in Munich historically range between 18°C and 28°C, with peak daily highs typically clustering around 24–26°C. The city's continental climate produces occasional heat spikes above 30°C during summer anticyclones, though such events occur roughly once every three to five years. Recent Augusts (2022–2024) saw Munich peak between 25°C and 29°C, establishing a baseline against which extreme outcomes—either unusually cool or notably warm readings—can be evaluated. The 0% crowd reading suggests traders are either heavily concentrated in a single temperature band or the market lacks sufficient participation to generate distributed probabilities.

Key variables include European summer weather patterns in early August 2026, which typically determine whether high-pressure systems dominate central Europe by late month. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and European medium-range models as August approaches. The Weather Underground data dependency creates a secondary consideration: station maintenance or sensor recalibration at Munich Airport could theoretically affect recorded values, though such events are rare and usually documented. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 21 August, allowing traders to incorporate morning forecasts before final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.