Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at Munich Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal liquidity across the contract's outcome buckets.

August temperatures in Munich historically cluster between 24–28°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or above during heat waves. The 0% reading across prediction markets and sportsbooks indicates either that the market has collapsed into a single heavily-favoured range or that resolution criteria specificity—particularly the mandate to use Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—has created pricing friction. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket typically show wider probability distributions for single-day temperature ranges, suggesting this contract's current state may reflect thin trading rather than genuine consensus.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) in the weeks preceding 11 August, as seasonal patterns and any developing high-pressure systems will inform temperature trajectories. The settlement window's reliance on a specific data source—Weather Underground's Munich Airport Station rather than alternative weather stations or summary tables—creates a technical dependency that could affect resolution if data discrepancies emerge. Recent heatwaves across central Europe in summer 2024 and 2025 have demonstrated volatility in August temperatures, making the current 0% probability worth scrutinising against historical volatility patterns.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.