Highest temperature in Milan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Milan's Malpensa International Airport will determine which range this market settles into, with resolution drawn from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity positioning ahead of the settlement window closing at midday on the event date.

Milan's August climate presents a consistent pattern: daily highs typically range between 27–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme temperatures exceeding 35°C occur roughly once every three to four years in early August, whilst readings below 25°C are exceptionally rare. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal baselines, suggesting either the market has resolved to a narrow range already or traders have not yet engaged substantively with this contract. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi show wider probability distributions for similar European temperature events, indicating potential mispricing if this market remains illiquid.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-July onwards, particularly models tracking Atlantic pressure systems and heat dome development across southern Europe. Recent heatwave patterns in 2023–2024 demonstrated that Milan can experience sustained temperatures above 30°C during August, though forecasting precision beyond two weeks remains limited. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Wunderground's specific Daily Observations table—rather than official meteorological service data—introduces a minor execution risk that traders should verify before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.