Highest temperature in Miami on August 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami’s temperature on 25 August is typically driven by a familiar late-summer pattern: hot, humid mornings, then a midday peak before scattered sea-breeze showers and thunderstorms can trim the day’s high. For Miami International Airport, the available forecast and recent readings point to low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit as the base case, with the airfield already running in the upper 80s by late afternoon and the NWS describing temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s.[1][2]

That framing matters for the contract’s 0% YES crowd price, which looks out of step with both the weather setup and comparable South Florida late-August cases. The market is only meaningful if the final settlement band is above the day’s observed maximum, so traders are really betting on whether cloud cover or thunderstorms cap the hourly maximum below the relevant threshold; history in this part of Florida usually favours at least one warm, dry-enough stretch before storms fire. Recent local coverage has also shown forecast highs in the low 90s and repeated heat-advisory-style conditions across South Florida, which supports the view that a zero-implied price is a very low-end read rather than a neutral one.[1][3]

The main catalysts are the timing of afternoon convection, the exact Miami International Airport hourly series, and any abrupt changes in cloud cover or rain coverage from the National Weather Service forecast updates. The current NWS office forecast still points to scattered showers and storms later in the day, with gusty winds and heavy rain possible, but it also keeps the thermal ceiling anchored in the low to mid 90s rather than anything materially cooler.[1][2] That leaves the key dependency as whether thunderstorms arrive early enough to suppress the airport’s highest hourly reading.[1][2]

[1] NWS Miami forecast and area discussion [2] NOAA/MIAMI International Airport current conditions [3] Recent South Florida weather coverage

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.