Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 24 July 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official meteorological station for the capital. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning only temperatures recorded before that point count toward resolution. July typically sees Mexico City's warmest conditions during the dry season, though afternoon thunderstorms are common and can suppress peak temperatures.

Historical data from the airport station shows July highs cluster between 25°C and 28°C, with occasional spikes to 29–30°C during particularly dry years. The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder contract pending typical July weather patterns. No major sportsbooks currently offer temperature-specific lines for Mexico City on this date, leaving prediction markets as the primary price discovery mechanism. The divergence between zero implied probability and the meteorological baseline—which would normally anchor expectations around 26–27°C—indicates either extreme caution or insufficient liquidity rather than genuine consensus that temperatures will fall outside historical norms.

Traders should monitor June 2026 weather patterns and any El Niño or La Niña updates from Mexico's National Meteorological Service, which typically influence summer temperatures across central Mexico. Altitude effects at Mexico City (2,250 metres) naturally moderate extremes compared to lower-elevation Mexican cities, a structural factor that constrains the upper range of plausible outcomes regardless of broader climatic conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.