Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 will be recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily peak in degrees Celsius. The prediction market currently shows a 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome on any extreme heat threshold, yet the frontrunner outcome is 29°C at 41% probability, followed by 28°C at 28% [1]. This divergence suggests the crowd does not expect record-breaking heat, but rather a typical mid-summer peak consistent with recent patterns.

Historical data for early July in Manila shows afternoon highs typically clustering between 31°C and 35°C, with 32°C to 34°C being most common [8]. However, the most recent week in July 2026 saw a maximum of only 33.2°C (94.8°F) on 3 July, dropping to 21.4°C (70.5°F) on 10 July [2]. While the Philippines’ all-time record is 42.2°C in Tuguegarao, Manila rarely exceeds 35°C even in its hottest month, May [3][7]. The current market pricing aligns more closely with these recent subdued readings than with the broader historical average.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the RPLL station and watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall, which can suppress peak temperatures. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but tropical activity in the western Pacific could influence Manila’s conditions if a system approaches the region [2]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026, so real-time price movements will reflect the latest hourly data as the day progresses [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.