Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero per cent probability to the “YES” condition. Historically, July in Manila falls within the wet season, marked by heavy rainfall and high humidity, with daytime temperatures typically reaching 31°C and night temperatures falling to 24°C[1]. While April is usually the hottest month, July still sees average highs between 26°C and 31°C, with frequent showers limiting extreme heat spikes[2]. Recent data shows a peak of 34.0°C in nearby Laoag City by late June, but Manila itself has not recorded comparable extremes in July, supporting the market’s low implied probability[8].

Traders should monitor Tropical Depression “HENRY,” which is moving westward over the West Philippine Sea and increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms across Greater Metro Manila on 1 July[3]. This system, with sustained winds of 45 km/h and gusts up to 55 km/h, is expected to suppress daytime temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Additionally, the ongoing El Niño, which may intensify into a very strong event by late 2026, could elevate regional temperatures in the longer term, though its immediate impact in July remains uncertain[4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, meaning any late-morning storm development could decisively cap the day’s maximum temperature below extreme thresholds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.