Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the peak daily temperature recorded at Lucknow’s Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. While the current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, the Polymarket frontrunner is 33°C, assigned a 32% chance, indicating a notable divergence between binary sentiment and specific temperature-band pricing [1]. This 1-in-3 probability for 33°C contrasts with analyst consensus that July highs in Lucknow typically range from 35°C to 39°C (96°F to 103°F), rarely dipping below 35°C (85°F) [2].

Historical data frames this probability cautiously: Lucknow’s hottest day in recent records hit 47.8°C on 12 June 2025, while the hottest day of the 2026 season so far reached 43.4°C on 5 July 2026, four degrees above normal [3][7]. Recent weather from 21 June to 6 July 2026 shows a peak of 105.8°F (46.0°C) on 26 June, suggesting extreme heat is already in the seasonal pattern [5]. Traders should monitor the India Meteorological Department’s daily forecasts and any monsoon onset announcements, as early cloud cover or rain could suppress temperatures below 33°C. A recent Scroll.in report confirms the city is already experiencing above-normal heat, reinforcing the likelihood of high readings unless a sudden weather shift occurs [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.