Highest temperature in London on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The UK Met Office forecasts for mid-August 2026 will determine whether London City Airport records a temperature exceeding the threshold bands specified in this contract. Historical August data shows London typically peaks between 20–24°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a conservative baseline forecast or uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve as "highest."

London's August climate has shown increasing volatility over the past decade. The summer of 2022 saw temperatures reach 40.3°C across parts of southern England, whilst August 2023 remained relatively moderate at 26–28°C peaks. City Airport station readings often run 1–2°C cooler than central London due to proximity to the Thames estuary and maritime influence. Comparable prediction markets on UK summer temperatures have historically clustered around 22–26°C ranges when crowd probability sits near zero, indicating baseline expectations favour moderate rather than extreme heat.

Traders should monitor the Met Office's extended outlook from July 2026 onwards, particularly any alerts for Atlantic high-pressure systems or continental warm air masses moving northward. The UK Health Security Agency typically issues heat-health alerts when temperatures are forecast to exceed seasonal norms by significant margins. Resolution depends entirely on the Daily Observations table at Weather Underground rather than summary figures, making data-source verification critical before settlement. Any discrepancy between the two sources will favour the granular observational record.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.