Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Wunderground's archive for that specific station and date. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity and trader participation in this niche weather contract.

Kuala Lumpur's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima year-round, typically between 32–34°C during the southwest monsoon season (May–September). Historical July records at the airport station show temperatures rarely exceeding 35°C; the modal outcome clusters around 32–33°C. This seasonal stability is the primary reason most traders have concentrated probability mass in the lower temperature bands, leaving higher ranges with negligible backing. Comparable Asian airport weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have shown similar clustering patterns when settlement depends on official meteorological stations rather than broader city measurements.

Traders should monitor the Malaysian Meteorological Department's monsoon forecasts released in early July 2026, which may signal anomalous heat events or unusual atmospheric conditions. Any El Niño or Indian Ocean Dipole signals affecting Southeast Asian weather patterns could shift expectations, though such shifts rarely produce extreme deviations at this location. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July, creating a hard deadline for final trades before the actual temperature is recorded and verified through Wunderground's historical database.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.