Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract tracks the **highest temperature at Houston Hobby Airport on 23 July 2026**, with Wunderground as the settlement source. In that context, the crowd-implied **0% YES** looks far below what Houston typically produces in midsummer: July averages sit around **77°F to 96°F**, and recent local-history reporting has shown daily highs in the **mid-90s°F** even with variable weather[2][1]. For a temperature market, that makes a zero-per-cent line look like an extreme outlier unless traders are pricing in an unusual cap, a data-source mismatch, or an early assumption that the relevant range is effectively unreachable.

Historically, Houston’s July heat is usually driven by persistent Gulf moisture, strong daytime insolation, and limited cloud cover between showers, so the more useful comparison is not whether the day reaches the 90s, but how high above 95°F it can push. That framing matters because the settlement is tied to the *day’s maximum* at Hobby Airport, not the citywide average, and comparable July climatology suggests values near the upper 90s are normal enough to keep the market skewed towards a high-temperature outcome[2]. If sportsbook-style weather derivatives are available, they would usually be anchored closer to the local heat forecast than to an all-or-nothing binary reading, which makes a 0% market probability especially notable.

The main catalysts are the same ones that move any Houston summer temperature contract: morning cloud cover, afternoon convection, and any shift in the forecast issued by the National Weather Service or airport-adjacent observations before the daily maximum is set. Traders should watch whether sea-breeze thunderstorm development suppresses the peak, or whether dry subsidence lets Hobby Airport run hot into the mid or upper 90s. The resolution source is the Wunderground daily history page for KHOU, so late changes in observed airport temperatures matter more than broader Houston forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.