Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s peak heat on 15 July 2026 will be measured at William P. Hobby Airport, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing the day’s highest temperature recorded there. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specified range, though historical July highs in Houston routinely reach 96°F (38°C) or higher, with average daily maxima hovering between 77°F and 96°F [1].

Past July 15 readings in Houston show consistent volatility, with temperatures frequently exceeding 90°F and occasionally breaching 100°F during heatwaves, making a 0% implied probability on any non-extreme range statistically anomalous unless the range is narrowly defined around an implausibly low threshold. Comparable days in mid-July 2023 and 2024 recorded highs of 97°F and 99°F respectively, suggesting the current odds may diverge from typical seasonal patterns unless the range targets an outlier low [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily high-temperature forecasts for Houston and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as cloud cover, humidity, and wind patterns can shift peak temperatures by several degrees within hours [1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline, but sudden changes in solar irradiance—stable at roughly 6.0 kWh in July—could influence outcomes if atmospheric conditions shift unexpectedly [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.