Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory set to record the day’s absolute maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The prediction market currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, though no specific range is stated in the query. This near-zero pricing is unusual for a weather event in mid-July, when Hong Kong routinely experiences highs above 30°C.

Historically, mid-July in Hong Kong sees average daily maximums between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme cases reaching 36°C or higher during humid, stagnant air conditions. The Observatory’s 2023 and 2024 July records show peaks of 35.2°C and 34.8°C respectively, indicating that temperatures in the 33–35°C range are typical. A 0% market probability implies the contract’s range is likely set below 30°C or above 37°C, both of which would be statistically improbable for this date.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract, which publishes finalized climate data including the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” after 12:00 UTC on 17 July. No immediate catalysts such as weather advisories or typhoon warnings have been issued as of 1 AM UTC on 16 July, according to the Observatory’s latest public bulletin. The market cannot settle until this data is officially released, creating a dependency on the Observatory’s schedule rather than real-time weather shifts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.