Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong faces its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory set to record the city’s highest daily temperature for the day. The market resolves to the Celsius range containing this absolute maximum, sourced from the Observatory’s finalized Daily Extract. Current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders view the specific temperature threshold as highly unlikely given historical patterns.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, averaging 89°F (31.7°C) highs, with July 2022 and July 2025 both breaking records as the hottest months since 1884 [1][2]. In those record-breaking years, daily maxima frequently exceeded 34°C, yet the 0% implied probability implies the contract’s threshold likely targets an extreme outlier—perhaps above 37°C—which has not occurred in recent decades. This divergence between sportsbook-style heat lines and prediction-market odds highlights a potential mispricing if traders overlook the intensity of the current heatwave, which saw July 2026 become the city’s hottest month on record with 11 broken records [1].

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule, as settlement depends entirely on the finalized “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” figure [8]. No immediate weather announcements are expected before 12:00 UTC, but real-time data from AccuWeather indicates daily highs in Sha Tin ranging 86–94°F (30–34.4°C) for July 2026, with the average high at 89°F [3]. The key dependency is the official publication; until the Daily Extract is finalized, the market cannot resolve, creating a binary wait for the definitive number.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.