Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 16 August 2026 in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the date has passed and data is finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution may be delayed pending official publication of the meteorological record.

Hong Kong's August temperatures typically range between 28–34°C, with daily maxima frequently exceeding 32°C during the summer monsoon season. Historical data from the Observatory shows that mid-August averages around 31–32°C, though extreme heat events have pushed recorded highs above 35°C in recent decades. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be clarified or treating this as a placeholder market pending full specification of temperature bands. Without visible comparable lines from sportsbooks or analyst consensus, the current probability reflects minimal trading activity rather than conviction about August conditions.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall. The El Niño/La Niña cycle influences regional heat patterns; current conditions favour neutral or weak La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer. Real-time tracking of upper-air patterns and sea-surface temperatures in late July will provide the most actionable signals for positioning ahead of the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.