Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single highest reading, measured to one decimal place and sourced from the Observatory's official Daily Extract dataset once finalised.

Hong Kong's August climate is characterised by intense heat and high humidity during the summer monsoon season. Historical data from the Observatory shows August daily maxima typically range between 30–34°C, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 35°C during heat waves. The territory's record August temperature stands at 36.3°C, set in 1990. The 0% crowd probability currently implied across platforms suggests traders are either awaiting temperature-band specifications or treating this as a placeholder contract pending clarification of the exact resolution ranges. Without published band definitions, meaningful comparison between Polymarket and Kalshi odds remains difficult; both platforms show minimal trading activity at present.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat alerts as August 2026 approaches. The timing of the settlement window—closing at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date—means the final Observatory reading must be published before that deadline, which historically occurs within 24 hours of the observation day. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August could materially affect temperature outcomes, making meteorological bulletins from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional weather services relevant tracking points for position management.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.