Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou on 6 July 2026 is forecast to hit 30°C (87°F), with humidity at 89% and rising pressure, marking the start of the city’s peak summer heat[1]. This prediction market, currently implying a 0% chance of a “YES” outcome for a specific temperature range, appears to diverge sharply from historical reality, as July is consistently Guangzhou’s hottest month, averaging 28.7°C and frequently reaching 36°C (96.8°F)[4][7].

Historical data shows daily highs in July rarely fall below 85°F or exceed 96°F, with the average high stabilising around 91°F (33°C) by mid-month[2][5]. Comparable cases from recent years confirm that temperatures exceeding 30°C are standard, not exceptional, making the current 0% implied probability highly anomalous when weighed against analyst consensus and weather models[3]. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Baiyun International Airport station, as well as any sudden shifts in monsoon activity or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures[1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the dependency on precise hourly readings means even minor forecast adjustments could alter settlement outcomes[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.